শেয়ারবাজার :::: আগামী অর্থবছরের বাজেটে সিগারেট, বিড়ি, জর্দা এবং তামাকজাত পণ্যের শুল্ক বাড়ানোর প্রস্তাব করা হয়েছে। বাজেটে সরাসরি সিগারেটের মূল্যস্তর বাড়ানোর প্রস্তাব করা হয়েছে। এর ফলে সিগারেটসহ তামাকজাত সব পণ্যের দাব বেড়ে যাবে।
বাজেটে মূল্য সংযোজন কর আদায় বাড়ানোর জন্য কতিপয় ক্ষেত্রে মুসক ও সম্পূরক শুল্ক বাড়ানো হয়েছে। বিশেষ করে সিগারেট এর মূল্যস্তর ও সম্পূরক শুল্কহার বড়ানোর প্রস্তাব করা হয়েছে।
বাজেট বক্তৃতায় অর্থমন্ত্রী বলেছেন, সিগারেটের মূল্যস্তর বাড়ানোর প্রস্তাব করছি। একইসঙ্গে জর্দা, গুল ও এনার্জি ড্রিংকের ওপর সম্পূরক শুল্ক বাড়ানো হচ্ছে।
বাজেট বক্তৃতায় অর্থমন্ত্রী বলেছেন, তামাকজাত পণ্যের ব্যবহার মারাত্বক স্বাস্থ্য ঝুঁকি থাকার কারণে দেশব্যাপী তামাকজাত পণ্যের ব্যবহার সীমিত করার জন্য জনমত সৃষ্টি হয়েছে। এই উদ্দেশ্যে তামাকজাত পণ্যের ব্যবহার কমিয়ে আনা ও এ থেকে রাজস্ব আয় বাড়ানোর লক্ষ্যে সম্পূরক শুল্ক বাড়ানোর প্রস্তাব করছি।
সিগারেটের সম্পূরক শুল্ক যথাক্রমে ৩৬, ৫৫, ৫৮ ও ৬০ করার প্রস্তাব করা হযেছে। জর্দার সম্পূরক শুল্ক ১০ শতাংশ বাড়িয়ে ৩০ শতাংশ বাড়ানোর প্রস্তাব করা হয়েছে।
এছাড়া এনার্জি ড্রিংকের সম্পূরক শুল্ক ১০ শতাংশ বাড়ানো এবং ফ্লোট গ্লাসের সম্পূরক শুল্ক ১০ বাড়ানোর প্রস্তাব করা হয়েছে।
//////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////Finance Minister AMA Muhith has eyed a higher economic growth of 7 percent -- the highest for Bangladesh if we exclude the 1972 level -- and expected to lower inflation to 7.5 percent, both of which are achievable.
But for that he needs policy reforms and smooth public investment, both of which have not been clearly defined.
Moreover, his growth is subject to a number of factors which have to go right.
The finance minister has pinned his hope on a rebound of the global economy, robust export, high revenue collection, agriculture growth, and private sector credit growth.
But global economy now looks shaky and may go for a double dip. In such a situation, export may not be robust. This year's high revenue collection growth -- 22.7 percent -- may have prompted the finance minister to set another lofty goal of 24.37 percent. But the risk lies in setting a higher growth target on a high growth.
Agriculture is highly weather dependent. Moreover, subsidy in agriculture has been proposed to be lowered, and agriculture credit flow in real terms -- when adjusted with inflation -- has not grown. However, subsidy cannot explain all of the agriculture growth, and it has to depend a lot on input management. Otherwise, his own assumption that "achieving this level of growth hinges on to the development of agriculture sectors" will not look right.
Muhith has also betted on private sector credit. But in his own words private sector credit is already "significantly" high at 30 percent growth, and if inflation has to be checked, this credit growth has to be reined in, or inflation will gallop.
Last year, inflation target was set at 6.5 percent, but it has eventually ended at 8.5 percent. A 7.5 percent target can go even higher if monetary and fiscal policies are not properly applied.
The finance minister has however rightly stressed power generation, and laid out a detailed plan and projections. He hopes to add 2,157 MW by December next year. He hopes that investment in power, and implementation of various big projects by the government and the private sector will infuse required investment for growth.
But right now, other than power and some infrastructures like expressways and flyovers, no big projects are in view.
The proposed budget has seen 26 percent higher outlay for next year. But his sources of meeting this expenditure pose challenge.
This year, the government showed a dismal performance in using foreign funds. Its Annual Development Programme (ADP) largely depended on domestic financing which essentially meant borrowing from banks, and some collection from sale of savings instruments.
For the next year, he plans an almost 80 percent improvement in foreign financing to the tune of about $2.5 billion, an unprecedented level for the country. But he himself has admitted that this year's foreign financing could not be secured adequately because of negotiations and other problems. This means, the government has to be a lot smarter next year to ensure this higher foreign financing.
But then again, setting such a high foreign financing component has a lot to do with the Padma Bridge. Out of the five components of the bridge, even if one can be started, a chunky amount of foreign financing to the tune of about $500 million will be available. So a challenge for the government will be to quickly move into implementing the Padma Bridge.
The finance minister has also accounted $350 million in budget support. For this to be available, a lot of critical reforms have to be undertaken. In a year of political disquiet, this can be a tough task.
If foreign funding cannot be tapped, the government will have to fall back on domestic financing -- mainly bank borrowing to the effect of crowding out the private sector. This will put investment at stake again.
Muhith in his budget speech has hoped that investment situation will improve, because of the power sector and infrastructure improvement. But he has spoken little about reforming bureaucracy which is so vital for an investment friendly environment.
Without such things, foreign direct investment, that the finance minister spoke of as a means to improve the fledgling current account balance, will not flow in as well.
Muhith has also hoped that remittance inflow will increase next year despite its dismal growth of 5 percent this year.
But if these three elements -- foreign assistance, foreign direct investment, and remittance -- do not show up, exchange rate will surely suffer. Taka will weaken further and inflation increase.
One can also be skeptic about the size of ADP. The finance minister had rightly identified the reasons for low ADP implementation when he had proposed the outgoing year's budget. He had also promised a number of steps including setting up a taskforce, and reporting of implementation status to the Executive Committee of the National Economic Council. Despite that we are witnessing a low ADP utilisation this year because the government could not perform. And if these things remain the same next year, we will be faced with a higher ADP shortfall with knock-on effects across the board.
The finance minister has shown a friendly face to the society at large with his social programmes. He has given higher allocations to social safety nets. He has also tried to symbolically establish equity in society through taxing property of a certain value, and taxing government officials as well as the prime minister, speaker, ministers, lawmakers, and judges of the High Court.
বাজেটে মূল্য সংযোজন কর আদায় বাড়ানোর জন্য কতিপয় ক্ষেত্রে মুসক ও সম্পূরক শুল্ক বাড়ানো হয়েছে। বিশেষ করে সিগারেট এর মূল্যস্তর ও সম্পূরক শুল্কহার বড়ানোর প্রস্তাব করা হয়েছে।
বাজেট বক্তৃতায় অর্থমন্ত্রী বলেছেন, সিগারেটের মূল্যস্তর বাড়ানোর প্রস্তাব করছি। একইসঙ্গে জর্দা, গুল ও এনার্জি ড্রিংকের ওপর সম্পূরক শুল্ক বাড়ানো হচ্ছে।
বাজেট বক্তৃতায় অর্থমন্ত্রী বলেছেন, তামাকজাত পণ্যের ব্যবহার মারাত্বক স্বাস্থ্য ঝুঁকি থাকার কারণে দেশব্যাপী তামাকজাত পণ্যের ব্যবহার সীমিত করার জন্য জনমত সৃষ্টি হয়েছে। এই উদ্দেশ্যে তামাকজাত পণ্যের ব্যবহার কমিয়ে আনা ও এ থেকে রাজস্ব আয় বাড়ানোর লক্ষ্যে সম্পূরক শুল্ক বাড়ানোর প্রস্তাব করছি।
সিগারেটের সম্পূরক শুল্ক যথাক্রমে ৩৬, ৫৫, ৫৮ ও ৬০ করার প্রস্তাব করা হযেছে। জর্দার সম্পূরক শুল্ক ১০ শতাংশ বাড়িয়ে ৩০ শতাংশ বাড়ানোর প্রস্তাব করা হয়েছে।
এছাড়া এনার্জি ড্রিংকের সম্পূরক শুল্ক ১০ শতাংশ বাড়ানো এবং ফ্লোট গ্লাসের সম্পূরক শুল্ক ১০ বাড়ানোর প্রস্তাব করা হয়েছে।
//////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////Finance Minister AMA Muhith has eyed a higher economic growth of 7 percent -- the highest for Bangladesh if we exclude the 1972 level -- and expected to lower inflation to 7.5 percent, both of which are achievable.
But for that he needs policy reforms and smooth public investment, both of which have not been clearly defined.
Moreover, his growth is subject to a number of factors which have to go right.
The finance minister has pinned his hope on a rebound of the global economy, robust export, high revenue collection, agriculture growth, and private sector credit growth.
But global economy now looks shaky and may go for a double dip. In such a situation, export may not be robust. This year's high revenue collection growth -- 22.7 percent -- may have prompted the finance minister to set another lofty goal of 24.37 percent. But the risk lies in setting a higher growth target on a high growth.
Agriculture is highly weather dependent. Moreover, subsidy in agriculture has been proposed to be lowered, and agriculture credit flow in real terms -- when adjusted with inflation -- has not grown. However, subsidy cannot explain all of the agriculture growth, and it has to depend a lot on input management. Otherwise, his own assumption that "achieving this level of growth hinges on to the development of agriculture sectors" will not look right.
Muhith has also betted on private sector credit. But in his own words private sector credit is already "significantly" high at 30 percent growth, and if inflation has to be checked, this credit growth has to be reined in, or inflation will gallop.
Last year, inflation target was set at 6.5 percent, but it has eventually ended at 8.5 percent. A 7.5 percent target can go even higher if monetary and fiscal policies are not properly applied.
The finance minister has however rightly stressed power generation, and laid out a detailed plan and projections. He hopes to add 2,157 MW by December next year. He hopes that investment in power, and implementation of various big projects by the government and the private sector will infuse required investment for growth.
But right now, other than power and some infrastructures like expressways and flyovers, no big projects are in view.
The proposed budget has seen 26 percent higher outlay for next year. But his sources of meeting this expenditure pose challenge.
This year, the government showed a dismal performance in using foreign funds. Its Annual Development Programme (ADP) largely depended on domestic financing which essentially meant borrowing from banks, and some collection from sale of savings instruments.
For the next year, he plans an almost 80 percent improvement in foreign financing to the tune of about $2.5 billion, an unprecedented level for the country. But he himself has admitted that this year's foreign financing could not be secured adequately because of negotiations and other problems. This means, the government has to be a lot smarter next year to ensure this higher foreign financing.
But then again, setting such a high foreign financing component has a lot to do with the Padma Bridge. Out of the five components of the bridge, even if one can be started, a chunky amount of foreign financing to the tune of about $500 million will be available. So a challenge for the government will be to quickly move into implementing the Padma Bridge.
The finance minister has also accounted $350 million in budget support. For this to be available, a lot of critical reforms have to be undertaken. In a year of political disquiet, this can be a tough task.
If foreign funding cannot be tapped, the government will have to fall back on domestic financing -- mainly bank borrowing to the effect of crowding out the private sector. This will put investment at stake again.
Muhith in his budget speech has hoped that investment situation will improve, because of the power sector and infrastructure improvement. But he has spoken little about reforming bureaucracy which is so vital for an investment friendly environment.
Without such things, foreign direct investment, that the finance minister spoke of as a means to improve the fledgling current account balance, will not flow in as well.
Muhith has also hoped that remittance inflow will increase next year despite its dismal growth of 5 percent this year.
But if these three elements -- foreign assistance, foreign direct investment, and remittance -- do not show up, exchange rate will surely suffer. Taka will weaken further and inflation increase.
One can also be skeptic about the size of ADP. The finance minister had rightly identified the reasons for low ADP implementation when he had proposed the outgoing year's budget. He had also promised a number of steps including setting up a taskforce, and reporting of implementation status to the Executive Committee of the National Economic Council. Despite that we are witnessing a low ADP utilisation this year because the government could not perform. And if these things remain the same next year, we will be faced with a higher ADP shortfall with knock-on effects across the board.
The finance minister has shown a friendly face to the society at large with his social programmes. He has given higher allocations to social safety nets. He has also tried to symbolically establish equity in society through taxing property of a certain value, and taxing government officials as well as the prime minister, speaker, ministers, lawmakers, and judges of the High Court.