প্রস্তাবিত বাজেটে মোট আয় ধরা হয়েছে ১ লাখ ২৩ হাজার ৩২৩ কোটি টাকা। সামাগ্রিক বাজেট ঘাটতি ধরা হয়েছে ৪৫ হাজার ২০৪ কোটি টাকা, যা জিডিপির ৫ শতাংশ।
চলতি ২০১০-১১ অর্থবছরের জাতীয় বাজেটের আকার ছিল এক লাখ ৩২ হাজার ১৭০ কোটি টাকা। এর মধ্যে এডিপি বরাদ্দ ছিল ৩৮ হাজার কোটি টাকা। বাস্তবায়ন সন্তোষজনক না হওয়ায় পরে তা কাটছাঁট করে ৩৫ হাজার ১৩০ কোটিতে নামায় নামিয়ে আনা হয়।
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Easing of growing inflationary pressures alongside maintaining higher economic growth target remains a daunting task for the government in the next fiscal year beginning on July 1.
Many other puzzles are also in front of Finance Minister AMA Muhith when he presents in parliament today the national budget for 2011-2012, the third of the present government.
The Awami League-led alliance government, exactly in the middle of its five-year tenure, is faced with challenges of tackling a widening budget deficit, financing losses incurred by public entities and meeting populist demand for subsidy payment and safety net programmes.
A potentially high budget outlay is set to compel the government to target higher revenue earning, especially from value added tax (VAT) and income tax, and streamline the foreign aid disbursement process.
Creation of jobs and injection of money into the rural economy, as the ruling party promised before the 2008 elections, are supposed to be priorities still for the finance minister when inflation has reached double digit.
Some 65,000 jobs have been created under the national services project in the past two years whereas the ruling party, in its election manifesto, promised to create one job for one family. According to official estimate, the total number of unemployed people is 12.5 million.
The finance minister has already said in an interview that the last two budgets were of the promises while the next one will be purely for economic consolidation.
The finance ministry is learnt to have fixed a target of gross domestic product at Tk 9016.43 billion or 7 percent growth for the next year although doubts have been expressed that a 6.7 percent growth target for the outgoing fiscal year could be attained.
The collapse of the share market and the uncertainty in overseas job market in recent times have already reduced the confidence of small investors and young job
seekers in pursuing economic opportunities in the near future.
A projected amount of $2 billion required for financing the losses as a result of the government’s costly purchase of electricity and imports of fuel oil will cause further pressure on the national exchequer in the next fiscal year.
The finance minister is under compulsion to ensure adequate allocations for power projects and infrastructure development to remove barriers to investment and economic growth and better the life of the commoners.
He is expected to come out with guideline for raising the ratio of investment to GDP to 30 percent in a couple of years to attain a GDP growth of 8 percent.
Amid rising global grain prices and domestic obligation to ensure food security, the government is expected to allocate significant amount for food and farm subsidies. Muhith is not also in a position to ignore the demand for higher amount to extend the coverage of the social safety net programmes.
The finance minister is likely to announce a crop insurance scheme for the first time. However, farm subsidy may remain unchanged at Tk 62 billion.
The non-development expenditures — likely to be to the tune of Tk 1.1 trillion or 20 percent increase on the current year’s expenditures — are placing strains on the budget, pushing the finance minister to revise downward allocations for much-needed development goals.
In the history of independent Bangladesh, the finance minister places the 39th national budget, the size of which is likely to be Tk 1.63589 trillion, as the media reported, compared to 1.32 trillion budget of the outgoing fiscal year.
Muhith, who authors his 5th budget since the 1980s, is due to present the budget through a power point presentation in the Jatiya Sangsad at 4:00pm today.
He has reportedly made the higher expenditure outlay despite lower than budgeted expenditures of annual development programme (Tk 358.30 billion instead of the original outlay of Tk 385 billion).
This may mean that non-development expenses continue to contribute to widening the budget deficit, which is expected to surpass an amount of Tk 450 billion.
But revenue earning, especially from non-tax sources and taxes outside the jurisdiction of the National Board of Revenue, may remain meagre at less than 20 percent of the targeted amount of Tk 1.18 trillion for the next fiscal year.
The rise in non-development expenditures particularly loss-financing generally deprives the taxpayers of due benefits of development and the poor of deserved social protection. And financing the budget deficit from borrowing from banking sources may deny the private sector entrepreneurs from money required for investment and creation of jobs.
Debt repayment will eat up around Tk 210 billion or 13 percent of the budget, making it the biggest chunk in budget spending.
The finance minister may need to announce fiscal policies and measures in the budget, making them compatible with the monetary policies so that principles of equity in development are upheld.
Business lobbyists expect that the finance minister would announce certain incentives including stimulus to the domestic industries.
Muhith needs to provide incentives to the export sectors, which are performing well when some other economic indicators show dismal performance.
With budget documents, separate reports on activities of 20 ministries on women empowerment and establishing their rights, creating a knowledge-based society using technology titled "March forward of Digital Bangladesh" and a roadmap for development of power and energy sector will also be published.
The finance minister will also place in the House a document prepared by the Planning Commission on the Annual Development Programme (ADP) for fiscal 2011-12 and another on bank and financial institutions activities in fiscal 2010-11 prepared by the Banking and Financial Institution Division.
Muhith will hold a post-budget press conference in the city’s Osmani Memorial auditorium at 4:00pm tomorrow.